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Every team’s chances of winning Euro 2020 have been revealed by Opta’s detailed Stats Perform prediction model – and England are only eighth on the list of likely winners.
Each country competing has now played two matches and, going into the final group games, the brains at Opta have delivered a breakdown of the most likely tournament winner based on team performances and possible path to victory.
France remain favourites, despite their draw with Hungary, with a 23.3% chance of success. But Germany have moved into second place on 12.2%, while England are eighth on the list with a 5.4% chance of lifting the trophy.
As well as looking at recent and historical team performances, the Opta model “considers the strength of opponents and the difficulty of the ‘path to the final’ by using the match outcome probabilities.”
While Group F has been labelled the ‘group of death’ as it contains France, Germany and Portugal, the stats model clearly calculates that all three are likely to qualify, as the Portuguese are third favorites with a 10.6% chance of success despite Saturday’s 4-2 defeat to Germany.
Spain are in fourth despite drawing both of the Euros games, while Belgium and Netherlands are fifth and sixth respectively after winning two from two.
23.3% – According to the Stats Perform prediction model, France remain the favourites to win EURO 2020 with a 23.3% chance, while Germany have now moved into second-favourite (12.2%). Fight.
For more info on how the Stats Perform Predictor is calculated: https://t.co/0S3WTzwKae pic.twitter.com/MPoIB7IsnI
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) June 19, 2021
We’re actually quite surprised to see Belgium’s chances as low as 9.9%, but this is a nation that does not have a history of making major finals (nor do England in the last 55 years to be fair).
Bottom of the pile are North Macedonia with a literal 0% chance of winning Euro 2020 (ouch), while Scotland don’t fare much better at 0.04% despite their draw with England at Wembley. Wales are 10th favourites with a 1.9% chance of glory.
23.3% – According to the Stats Perform prediction model, France remain the favourites to win EURO 2020 with a 23.3% chance, while Germany have now moved into second-favourite (12.2%). Fight.
For more info on how the Stats Perform Predictor is calculated: https://t.co/0S3WTzwKae pic.twitter.com/MPoIB7IsnI
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) June 19, 2021
The full running order, before Sunday’s Group A deciders, is below and you can read how Opta’s platform crunches the data here.
24. North Macedonia – 0%
23. Turkey – 0.01%
21= Hungary – 0.04%
21= Scotland – 0.04%
20. Slovakia – 0.1%
19. Finland – 0.2%
18. Austria – 0.3%
17. Czech Republic – 0.3%
15= Poland – 0.6%
15= Ukraine – 0.6%
14. Croatia – 0.9%
13. Sweden – 1.4%
11= Russia – 1.6%
11= Switzerland – 1.6%
10. Wales – 1.9%
9. Denmark – 4.0%
8. England – 5.8%
7. Italy – 6.8%
6. Netherlands – 7.7%
5. Belgium – 9.9%
4. Spain – 10.2%
3. Portugal – 10.6%
2. Germany – 12.2%
1. France – 23.3%
All imagery: PA Images