A Supercomputer reckons England’s chances of winning the Euros have actually improved since the start of the tournament, despite the draw with Scotland.
Before the tournament began, hopes were high that Gareth Southgate could end the 55 years of hurt, to paraphrase Baddiel and Skinner, and win England’s first trophy at a major tournament since the World Cup in 1966.
Those expectations only rose after the first group game, with the Three Lions getting some revenge on Croatia for knocking them out of the World Cup three years ago, when Raheem Sterling’s goal earned England all three points.
Optimism soon turned to pessimism with last Friday’s 0-0 draw with Scotland, with Steve Clark’s team looking more dangerous, leading Southgate to write off his own side’s chances of winning the Euros.
However, according to Opta’s stats, England have a 5.8% chance of bringing football home after the first two round of fixtures, when it was just a 5.2% chance before the tournament.
Group F, nicknamed the ‘Group of Death,’ is most likely to produce the winner, with France, Germany and Portugal taking the top three spots, with Belgium and Spain having previously been in those positions.
24. North Macedonia – 0%
23. Turkey – 0.01%
22. Hungary – 0.04%
21. Scotland – 0.04%
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| Scotland’s chances of winning the tournament are still unsurprisingly slim despite the draw with England. Image: PA Images |
20. Slovakia – 0.1%
19. Finland – 0.2%
18. Austria – 0.3%
17. Czech Republic – 0.3%
16. Poland – 0.6%
15. Ukraine – 0.6%
14. Croatia – 0.9%
13. Sweden – 1.4%
12. Russia – 1.6%
11. Switzerland – 1.6%
10. Wales – 1.9%
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| Wales will face the Group B runners up after finishing second in their group. Image: PA Images |
9. Denmark – 4.0%
8. England – 5.8%
7. Italy – 6.8%
6. Netherlands – 7.7%
5. Belgium – 9.9%
4. Spain – 10.2%
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| Spain could go out after just two points from two games but are still well fancied to win. Image: PA Images |
3. Portugal – 10.6%
2. Germany – 12.2%
1. France – 23.3%
23.3% – According to the Stats Perform prediction model, France remain the favourites to win EURO 2020 with a 23.3% chance, while Germany have now moved into second-favourite (12.2%). Fight.
For more info on how the Stats Perform Predictor is calculated: https://t.co/0S3WTzwKae pic.twitter.com/MPoIB7IsnI
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) June 19, 2021
Despite having a 10.6% chance of winning the tournament, Cristiano Ronaldo and his Portugal teammates could still get eliminated from the tournament before the group stages are over.
The reigning champions lost to Germany on Saturday, in the most entertaining match so far, and face the team they beat in the final five years ago, France, in their final group game on Wednesday night.
Should Didier Deschamps’ side win, and Germany beat Hungary, then Portugal would have to rely on being one of the best four third-placed teams. They would have three points and their goal difference would depend on the France result.
That would be the tournament’s first major shock!
Featured Image Credit: 20th Century Fox/PA