Manchester City are leading the way in the Premier League.

Despite widespread concerns about their title chances without a Sergio Aguero replacement in the summer, Pep Guardiola has it in his hands to conquer England for the fourth time in five seasons.

However, it won’t be without stiff competition from Liverpool and Chelsea – who have emerged as the biggest threats to City’s throne – before the eventual winner is crowned in five month’s time.


2021/22 Premier League season

That being said, there’s no denying that the Blues and Reds have allowed Guardiola to consolidate his position at the top of the tree on the back of disappointing draws over the weekend.

While the Citizens bulldozed their way to a 4-0 win at Newcastle United, the chasing pack came unstuck with draws against Tottenham Hotspur and Wolverhampton Wanderers on the road.

It was a fortunate run of results that mean City are three points clear of Liverpool and six points above Chelsea with all three sides having played 18 games despite the recent turmoil.

However, even in a world where City do canter to Premier League glory, there is no shortage of other fascinating narratives from the top four race all the way down to the relegation battle.

And now that the Premier League is closed for business until the final turkey is carved on Christmas Day, we thought that the time was ripe to take stock of the state of play in the 2021/22 season.

Predicted Premier League table

To do so, we’re turning to the data gurus over at FiveThirtyEight who use their complex algorithm, which you can learn more about here, to predict the likelihood of scenarios in the Premier League.

By working out the percentage chance of every team winning the league, reaching the top four, dropping down to the Championship and so on, they can simulate what the final table will look like.

It’s not a perfect system – nothing is when it comes to football – but it’s arguably our best tool for predicting how the Premier League table will shape up in May, so be sure to check it out below:

Man City clear favourites for glory

Put up the bunting, City fans, because you’re the hot favourites to claim the title.

It really is quite astonishing that with almost half of the games still to play that the Citizens already have a whopping 68% chance of winning the league, while Chelsea only have a 5% long shot.

You’d be forgiven for thinking that the statistics are essentially saying that it’s now a two-horse race for the title, but even Liverpool have a lot of chasing to do with their hopes quantified at 27%.

At the other end of the table, there won’t be too many eyebrows raised at the sight of Norwich City and Newcastle United facing the drop, but it’s certainly interesting that Burnley leapfrog Watford.

Manchester United fans will be raging at a lack of Champions League football, Steven Gerrard will be delighted to lift Aston Villa up to ninth and Brighton & Hove Albion will adore a top-half finish.

However, even if you want to pooh-pooh all the above and put on your skeptical hat, it doesn’t take a statistical model to show you that City are now in the driving seat for Premier League glory.


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